Wed
Feb
20
The "black swan"
Another thought-provoking podcast from SALT (Seminars About Long Term Thinking).
A “black swan,” (Nassim Nicholas) Taleb explained, is an event which is 1) Hard to predict; 2) Highly consequential; 3) Wrongly retro-predicted. We pretend we know why the big event happened, and so entrench our inability to deal with the next world-changing improbable event.
Examples: Viagra, 9/11, Harry Potter, First World War, Beatles, the PC, Google, and the rise of any successful religion. History is dominated by sudden, lasting changes wrought by deeply unexpected events.
“Never take advice from someone wearing a tie.”